EUR/USD
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister argues that recent EUR/USD weakness reflects Dollar strength rather than Euro fragility, with Fed expectations driving the move. He notes falling Oil prices and collapsing inflation expectations limit ECB hike prospects, while a softer Dollar would require Fed expectations to retreat. Commerzbank expects Euro area inflation to stay relatively high, but sees 1.18 in EUR/USD only returning over a longer horizon.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD inches lower after opening at a bullish gap, trading around 1.3200 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair loses ground as the Pound Sterling (GBP) declines against the US Dollar (USD) amid emerging safe-haven demand, which could be attributed to the United States (US)-Iran talks uncertainty.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair posts modest gains around 161.80 during the Asian trading hours on Monday, bolstered by uncertainty surrounding US-Iran talks. Nonetheless, the potential upside might be limited amid fears of intervention from Japanese authorities. Traders will keep an eye on the US June Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is due later on Thursday.
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair trades on a flat note around 0.6895 during the early Asian session on Monday. Traders continue to assess the developments surrounding talks to end the US war with Iran. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will publish the minutes of its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. All eyes will be on the US employment report later on Thursday.
NZD/USD
NZD/USD inches lower after opening at a bullish gap, trading around 0.5640 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair remains in the positive territory as the US Dollar (USD) remains subdued on easing safe-haven demand following reports that Washington and Tehran have agreed to halt attacks against each other before peace talks resume in Doha this week.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD remains in the negative territory for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.4190 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) inches lower following reports that Washington and Tehran have agreed to halt attacks against each other before peace talks resume in Doha this week.
USD/CHF
USD/CHF remains flat for the second successive day, hovering around 0.8100 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair moves little as the US Dollar (USD) remains calm amid market caution following the latest military clashes between the United States (US) and Iran and its temporary truce.
CRUDE OIL
Oil prices rose on Monday following days of tit-for-tat strikes by the U.S. and Iran that underscored the fragility of their interim peace deal and again slowed energy shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Gold price (XAU/USD) remains under selling pressure around $4,060 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The precious metal falls amid uncertainty surrounding US-Iran talks and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data will take center stage later on Thursday.
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